Huang Qunhui,a Huang Yanghua,b He Jun,c et al.

　　a, b and c Institute of Industrial Economics, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences

　　Abstract:When the high-income East Asian economies entered the upper-middle income stage, their long-term growth was sustained by their real manufacturing output share and total factor productivity (TFP). This is a typical pattern that is highly consistent with classical development economics, which sees manufacturing as the engine of economic growth. When China became a middle-income country, its share of real manufacturing output and TFP both fell over the same period, exhibiting a theoretical and empirical tendency toward “premature deindustrialization” that increases the risk of being caught in the middle-income trap. Accelerating China’s development as a manufacturing power, advancing high-tech manufacturing and improving the quality and efficiency of traditional industries are realistic options for the country’s industrial development strategy.

　　Keywords: middle-income trap, premature deindustrialization, productivity, East Asian experience